Retail stores may be located in rapidly expanding urban, peri-urban, rural or low-lying areas where land is more affordable, but infrastructure is less resilient. These locations are more exposed to flooding, extreme heat, storms, and poor drainage. Customer access is highly dependent on vulnerable transport systems, including formal, semi-informal and informal transit networks and last-mile connectivity, which can be easily disrupted by climate events or deteriorating environmental conditions.
Retail performance is highly sensitive to footfall and physical accessibility, particularly whether modern, traditional retail or e-commerce infrastructure. Limited channel diversification, reliance on daily in-person transactions, and constrained logistics systems increase vulnerability to disruption. High dependence on informal labour and variable operating conditions further heightens sensitivity to even short-term climate shocks.
Vulnerabilities
What could affect store & customer access?
The climate and nature pressures that make store & customer access more difficult.
Climate and nature-related hazards such as flooding, storms, extreme heat, and environmental degradation directly affect the conditions required for retail access across most markets. In some markets, hazards can disrupt well-established transport systems, temporarily reducing store accessibility and footfall. In other markets, where infrastructure may already be under pressure, the same hazards can cause more prolonged disruption, limiting mobility and access to retail altogether. Â
Acute events can lead to immediate store closures and restricted movement, while chronic changes (e.g. rising temperatures or more frequent extreme weather) can progressively alter shopping behaviours and reduce the reliability of in-store demand across all markets.
Where could access risk start?
How exposed store & customer access are to climate and nature risks.
In markets where stores are in flood-prone urban centres, coastal areas, or highly concentrated retail districts may face systemic disruption when infrastructure is affected. In some markets, exposure is often higher due to rapid urbanisation, weaker drainage and transport systems and greater reliance on vulnerable or informal access routes. Â
Dependence on specific transport corridors, high-value flagship stores, or limited alternative channels can increase exposure, particularly where disruptions affect large customer catchments.Â
What dependencies do businesses have on retail accessibility?Â
How much businesses rely on store & customer access.
Retail performance is highly sensitive to changes in customer accessibility, though the drivers of sensitivity vary by market context. Markets with high fixed operating costs, reliance on consistent footfall and integration with complex omnichannel systems increase sensitivity to short-term disruptions. Markets with greater reliance on physical retail, limited e-commerce penetration, and dependence on daily in-person transactions make access constraints more immediately impactful.
Limited flexibility in store formats, staffing, and operating models, combined with shifts in customer willingness or ability to travel, heighten sensitivity to climate-related disruption.
How could disruption spread across store & customer access? Â
How disruption from climate and nature threats can create knock-on effects to businesses.Â
Disruptions to store and customer access can lead to immediate and longer-term impacts on revenue and operational performance across most markets. Impacts often include reduced footfall, sales volatility and increased costs associated with store downtime and channel substitution. Disruptions can more directly limit access to goods, reduce transaction volumes and constrain overall market activity, particularly where alternative channels are limited.
Repeated disruption can weaken store profitability, create regional imbalances in demand and inventory and necessitate shifts in channel strategy, ultimately affecting customer retention and long-term growth.
Solutions
How can businesses keep store & customer access operational?
Examples of business adaptations and responses
SM Prime
Elevating SM City Marikina to keep a major retail centre accessible during floodsÂ
Link Asset Management
Protecting Temple Mall North from repeat flood disruptionÂ
CVS Health
Maintaining access to medicines during hurricanesÂ
