Climate Change is Intensifying Tropical Cyclones Over the Arabian Sea

A new study published in Weather and Climate Extremes (Pathaikara et al., 2025) underscores the alarming role of human-induced climate change in driving the increasing frequency and intensity of intense tropical cyclones (INT TCs) over the Arabian Sea during the October–November post-monsoon season. The research highlights that the surge in upper ocean heat content and atmospheric instability, both linked to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, has created a more favorable environment for INT TCs in the region. 

Using advanced Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate models, the study examined the influence of different environmental factors, including GHGs, aerosols, and natural forces, on the rise of tropical cyclone activity. The findings indicate that anthropogenic GHG forcing is the dominant factor, significantly increasing sea surface temperature, tropical cyclone heat potential, and moist static energy in the Arabian Sea. As a result, the area with optimal thermal conditions for cyclone formation has expanded, leading to more frequent and intense storms. 

The Arabian Sea region is home to densely populated coastal communities, where the escalating intensity of INT TCs presents a direct threat to millions of lives. Historical records already show a rising trend in damage and casualties caused by tropical cyclones. With climate change continuing to drive ocean warming, future projections suggest even more destructive storms in the years ahead. 

One key link between polar change and tropical cyclones is the weakening of the jet streams due to Arctic amplification. Changes in the jet stream can alter the movement and intensity of monsoons, impacting sea surface temperatures and upper-ocean heat content in the tropics. Additionally, the melting of polar ice contributes to rising sea levels, exacerbating storm surge risks from tropical cyclones. 

The study reinforces the pressing need for enhanced climate mitigation strategies. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains the most effective solution to curbing further warming and preventing more severe weather extremes. As polar regions continue to lose ice and ocean temperatures rise, the frequency and destructiveness of intense storms will only increase. Global policymakers, researchers, and advocacy groups must work together to address the escalating risks posed by climate change. 

Feature image: Sea storm. Credit: AlKalenski from Pixabay.

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