Europe Forewarned of Unusually Hot Summer with Drought and Heatwave Risks

Heat related deaths have increased by 30% in Europe in the last 20 years as summer heatwaves have become longer and stronger, according to Copernicus and WMO. A warmer May continues to reinforce the trend of 10 consecutive months of record-high global temperatures. Olivia Birch, a meteorologist at Atmospheric G2, stated that the sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean has reached its highest in the last 40 years, warning that the 2024 summer will be unusually hot.  

Mid and late summer temperatures are expected to soar above 40 deg C creating extremely dry conditions that will increase the risk of droughts and heatwaves. Spain, Italy and France are the countries that will experience above average warmer temperatures. An unusually hot summer and high risk of drought will impact crops across the Europe. According to the Commodity Weather Group Forecasts, as we head into May, half of the crops in the Black Sea region will be impacted by warmer temperatures. 

Children, elderly, outdoor workers and those with pre-existing health conditions are particularly vulnerable to heat stress and the effects are more visible in city areas where heat is radiated off the concrete footpaths and buildings. Northern Europe specifically is not prepared for such extreme heat stress according to an urban climatologist from University of Oxford.  Studies have shown that as the Arctic Sea ice continues to melt and add warmer freshwater to the North Atlantic Ocean, it drives more extreme weather over Europe such as summer heatwaves. To protect vulnerable populations from heat related deaths and stokes and to prevent crop failure from droughts, urgent investment in solutions such as drought early warning systems, increasing the water efficiency of existing and new technologies, changing to more drought resistant crops and improving access to water resources, implementing Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in cities is necessary.  

The risks and impacts of extreme heat are not bound to Europe alone. For more stories on extreme temperatures, visit our webpage on heat stress.

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