Jamaican hurricane season 2023

Like many island nations, Jamaica is vulnerable to climate change. The challenges faced include sea level rise, extreme weather events such as hurricanes, and food insecurity.  

The coastal community of Jamaica is facing a significant threat from rising sea level, with just over 24% of Jamaicans living within 5km of the coast (OCHA, 2022). Greenland ice melt accounts for nearly half of current global sea level rise (Climate Change Knowledge Centre, 2021), making it the largest single contributor. In total, if melted completely, Greenland’s ice sheet would raise sea levels by 7.4 meters. This makes Arctic warming a large determinator for changes happening around the world, and of particular interest to countries like Jamaica. 

Preparing for sea level rise is particularly challenging, because not only are its effects permanent, and thus different from hurricane preparation, but it magnifies other climate threats. Thus, entirely new community infrastructure and development needs to happen, which can withstand not only higher seas, but also greater storm surges. 

In addition to sea level rise, hurricanes are increasing in frequency and intensity in Jamaica, especially during the hurricane season from June till November. Between 2000 and 2021, 869 thousand people in Jamaica were affected by natural disasters with damages of $1.5 billion occurring in the country across the same period (OCHA, 2022). In 2016, Hurricane Matthew hit the country and affected 125 thousand people in the nation (OCHA, 2022).  

The vulnerability of the Small Island Developing States, like Jamaica, to hurricanes stems from their geographic location. Atlantic storms coming from the south are funnelled through the Caribbean before moving up to the Northern Atlantic (Storymaps, n.d.). In fact, 20% of all Category 5 Atlantic cyclones have occurred since 2016, highlighting the increase in strong storms (NOAA 2023). So far, the 2023 Hurricane season has seen several storms, including Idalia and Lee, undergo rapid intensification, which is when a storm gains at least 35pmh in windspeed within 24 hours. Some of this power may stem from the abnormally hot tropical waters, possibly associated with El Niño. 

As the Arctic warms further, increases sea level and temperature could drive hurricanes to become more stronger and more frequent. Up to 9% of regional GDP may be used up by projected hurricane damages in parts of the Caribbean by 2030. 

Read more about extreme weather here.