Malaria Is On The Move. Here’s Why.

Black and White Mosquito. Credit: Pexels and Pixabay. 

In the first three months of 2026, 414 people in Gauteng (South Africa) were diagnosed with malaria and 11 died – more cases than the same period last year, in a province not known as a malaria zone. Climate change is expanding where the disease can survive and spread. That shift is already happening in South Africa. And now, it’s travelling. 

Malaria transmission is closely linked to climate. Malaria is spread by mosquitoes, which thrive in warm and humid conditions. Recent periods of heavy rainfall and flooding have created ideal breeding environments across parts of Southern Africa. These conditions increase mosquito populations and extend the time during which transmission can occur. 

Regions like Gauteng were previously considered lower risk. But increased rainfall, warmer temperatures, and shifting seasons are allowing mosquitoes and the malaria parasite to survive and spread beyond the endemic areas where transmission has historically been concentrated.  

Human movement amplifies this. Travel between Gauteng and high-transmission regions – Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi – brings infections into urban areas where changing conditions are favourable and can now support further spread. 

Malaria is preventable and treatable, but without early diagnosis it can become life-threatening. If you develop fever, chills, headaches, or fatigue – especially after travel to high-risk areas – seek medical care promptly. 

Key Developments 

• 414 cases and 11 deaths recorded in Gauteng in first quarter of 2026. 

• Cases already higher than the same period in 2025  

• Heavy rainfall and flooding increasing mosquito breeding conditions  

• Climate variability contributing to expanded transmission risk beyond traditional zones 

• Travel to and from high-transmission regions is accelerating spread 

Climate Change and Polar Change context 

Malaria risk is increasingly shaped by long-term climate change, not just short-term weather events. Across Africa, warming temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns are expected to extend transmission seasons and expand malaria into regions that were previously considered low risk. This is because mosquitoes breed and survive most effectively between 20 and 30°C.  

Projections suggest that climate change could lead to an additional ~123 million malaria cases and over 500,000 deaths across Africa between 2024 and 2050. In Southern Africa, these changes are already influencing where mosquitoes can survive – and increasing the likelihood of outbreaks in urban areas. 

In addition, polar amplification can further shift global atmospheric circulation patterns, including the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is a low-pressure belt near the equator where trade winds meet and strong rainfall occurs. When the ITCZ shifts or becomes more variable, it changes rainfall patterns over Southern Africa, affecting surface water availability and mosquito breeding sites. Combined with warmer temperatures that speed up Anopheles mosquito development, this can alter malaria transmission risk, including seasonality and geographic range. 

Regional Implications 

South Africa (Gauteng) 

• Increase in malaria cases in urban region previously considered safe 

• Growing pressure on urban healthcare systems  

• Travel-linked infections contributing to spread  

Limpopo & Mpumalanga 

• Established high-transmission provinces  

• Seasonal transmission intensified by rainfall patterns  

• Key source regions for infections entering Gauteng  

Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi 

• High malaria transmission across all three countries 

• Cross-border travel driving regional spread 

• Ongoing public health burden in high-transmission areas  

• In Mozambique, around 10.3 million cases were recorded between January and September. This reflects a 14% rise in new infections compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the country’s Ministry of Health. 

• In Malawi, Malaria accounts for over 30-40% of outpatient visits in some years. 

Health & Socio-Economic Risks 

• Increased risk of severe illness and death without timely treatment  

• Greater demand on healthcare services during outbreaks  

• Economic impacts from lost productivity and healthcare costs  

• Greater need for awareness and prevention measures among travelers 

What You Can Do 

• If you develop fever, chills, headaches, or fatigue, seek medical care immediately – do not wait. Tell your doctor where you’ve been recently. The longer you are undiagnosed, the longer you can spread malaria.  

• Sleep under an insecticide-treated mosquito net, especially during peak mosquito hours after dusk. Use mosquito repellent, coils, or vaporizers at home (eco-friendly if you can), and wear protective clothing when outside in the evening. 

• Ask your health representative: “Do you have a plan for the rise in malaria? How does it protect me?” 

• If you have children under 5, pregnant women, or elderly family members at home, they are at higher risk of severe malaria. Know the symptoms and act fast. 

• If you are traveling between provinces or across borders, speak to a healthcare provider about prevention before you go. 

Prevention guidance adapted from WHO  

What Systemic Changes Are Needed 

• Stronger early malaria detection and rapid treatment systems across Southern Africa 

• Expanded mosquito control and prevention measures in at-risk urban areas 

• Better cross-border health coordination and disease surveillance 

• Integration of climate data into national health planning 

• Global action to reduce the emissions driving the temperature and rainfall shifts that are expanding disease risk 

Malaria has always been a disease whose impact is shaped by where you live and how much your health system can protect you. Climate change is redrawing both of those boundaries. Understanding that is the first step to changing it. 

Read more about health risks here. 

You already care about climate change. Now be the person who actually understands it. 

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