Philippines’ extreme heat May 2023

The Philippines comprises 7,100 islands and is extremely exposed and susceptible to changes in weather patterns (Liu et al., 2021). For example, as of May 2023, the southern city, Dumaguete, has now experienced 49 consecutive months of above average temperatures. Though the Arctic is geographically far away, its changes hit home. For example, as sea ice is lost, less sunlight is reflected and more is absorbed as heat, leading to warming in the Arctic and around the world.   

The Filipino climate is tropical with El Niño and La Niña events contributing significantly to annual temperature and rainfall variability (USAID, 2017). Arctic sea ice melting is anticipated to contribute to more frequent, stronger El Niño events (Liu et al., 2022), which relate to increased temperatures, and consequences like water scarcity and drought (Cinco et al., 2016). With a brewing El Niño event underway, 2023 is expected to be abnormally hot and dry.  

Temperatures in the Philippines are expected to rise by 1.8°C-2.2°C by 2050. This warming is likely to cause heat stress in crops and health impacts in humans. According to research conducted in the Philippines, key crops are likely to fall by 10% for every 1°C increase above the 30°C mark (IFPRI, 2015), leading to food insecurity. Heat stress also has economic implications by reducing human efficiency. Increased temperatures also raise the risk of the vector- and waterborne diseases that have led to more than 65,000 deaths between 2010-2019 (Department of Health, Philippines, 2012; WHO, 2016; Ordinario, 2019).  

Beyond the immediate consequences of temperature rise, heating is also associated with typhoons and sea level rise. Located in the global ‘typhoon belt’, the Philippines experiences an average of 19-20 typhoons annually. Warming air enables the atmosphere to hold onto more moisture, increasing the likelihood of powerful storms, such as 2021’s Super Typhoon Odette. Additionally, sea level rise in the Philippines is modelled to be 10-20% above the global average (Kahana et al., 2016) and is already threatening coastal communities through coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and salination of freshwater sources. Greenland melt is currently the largest contributor to sea level rise around the world.  

The Philippines is another example of how the most vulnerable and least contributing countries, with less than 0.4% of global emissions, are the most exposed to climate change impacts (Ritchie and Roser, 2020).  

Read more about heat stress here.

Read more about health risks related to climate change here.

Read more about extreme weather here.

Read more about sea level rise here.

Read more about water insecurity here.