The Bahamas’ hurricane season 2023

As one of the most populous members of the co-called Small Island Developing States (SIDS), The Bahamas is affected by climate change. The population of the country is especially vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, as 100% of the population lives within 25km of the coast (OCHA, 2022). According to the Nassau Guardian (2022), an estimated 23,600 people in the Bahamas will be affected by rising seas by 2050.  

Greenland ice melt contributes nearly half of current global sea level rise (Climate Change Knowledge Centre, 2021), making it the largest single source. In total, if melted completely, Greenland’s ice sheet would raise sea levels by 7.4 meters. This makes Arctic warming the largest determinator for changes happening around the world, and is thus of particular interest to the SIDS membership.  

Preparing for sea level rise is particularly challenging, because not only are its effects permanent, and thus different from a situation like hurricane preparation, but it magnifies other climate threats. Thus, entirely new community infrastructure and development needs to happen, which can withstand not only higher seas, but also greater storm surges. 

The Bahamas is subject to a high risk of hurricanes, especially between June and November. In 2019, Hurricane Dorian struck the Bahamas and is now known as “the strongest Atlantic Hurricane documented to directly impact a landmass” (IFRC, 2023).  As a result of the hurricane, 74 people died, while many homes and public buildings were destroyed. In addition, damages totalling $3.4 billion were reported by the local government (IFRC, 2023). The frequency and severity of hurricanes in the Bahamas continues to get worse because of sea level rise and warming, which is largely driven by change in the Arctic (Storymaps, n.d.). In fact, 20% of all Category 5 Atlantic cyclones have occurred since 2016, highlighting the increase in strong storms (NOAA, 2023). Due to the current El Niño, and the abnormally warm temperatures in the Atlantic, NOAA predicts the hurricane season in the Atlantic region to be above normal, with 2-5 major hurricanes expected (NOAA, 2023). So far, the 2023 Hurricane season has seen several storms, including Idalia and Lee, undergo rapid intensification, which is when a storm gains at least 35pmh in windspeed within 24 hours. Some of this power may stem from the abnormally hot tropical waters, possibly associated with El Niño. The vulnerability of the small island states, like the Bahamas, stem from their geographic location. Atlantic storms coming from the south are funnelled through the Caribbean before moving up to the Northern Atlantic (Storymaps, n.d.). 

As the Arctic warms further, increased sea level and temperature could drive hurricanes to become more stronger and more frequent. Relative to GDP, the cost of disasters in the Caribbean can be six times as expensive as if the same storm were to hit a larger, wealthier region, such as the neighbouring United States (Ötker and Srinivasan, 2018).   

Read more about sea level rise here.

Read more about extreme weather here.