2024 Sets a New Global Temperature Milestone as First Year Surpassing 1.5ºC Above Pre-Industrial Levels

According to the Copernicus, ERA5 datasets, October 2024 confirmed the year’s position as a landmark in climate history: it is the first year we’ve passed 1.5°C. This year has marked the second-warmest October on record globally, trailing behind October 2023. Average surface air temperature for the month reached 15.25°C, a significant 0.80°C higher than the 1991-2020 October average, and 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels. This month became the 15th in a 16-month streak of global-average temperatures exceeding the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial benchmarks. 

Already nearly halfway through November 2024 is now virtually certain to be the warmest year on record. From November 2023 to October 2024, the global average temperature stood at 1.62°C above the pre-industrial era (1850-1900), underscoring the pace and magnitude of global warming. The year’s trajectory remains clear: even if temperatures dropped to near-average levels for the rest of the year, 2024 would still be the hottest on record. 

Notably, nearly all regions in Europe experienced temperatures well above average, adding to a pattern of consistently rising temperatures. Northern Canada, parts of the United States, Japan, and Australia are also experienced above-average temperatures, while only central Greenland and Iceland recorded below-average temperatures. 

October 2024’s sea surface temperature (SST) reached 20.68°C over the global ocean (60°S–60°N), ranking it the second highest on record for the month, only slightly cooler than October 2023. Overall, SSTs remained unusually high across vast ocean regions, amplifying concerns over oceanic heat content and its ripple effects on marine ecosystems. 

Polar ice melt and permafrost thaw, driven by fossil fuel emissions, are accelerating global warming. As polar ice disappears, exposed darker ocean and land surfaces absorb more heat, amplifying warming through the ice-albedo feedback loop. The result is ever increasing global average temperatures as evidently recorded by the Copernicus datasets. Furthermore, these exceptionally warm temperatures in 2024 intensified extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and flooding across regions from North America to South Asia, threatening food and water security. These conditions, along with worsening air and water quality, increased the risks of disease outbreaks, including respiratory illnesses, vector-borne diseases, and waterborne infections, leading to higher mortality rates globally. For example, a flood in Brazil in May 2024 led to a leptospirosis outbreak in urban areas with poor sanitation. India experienced record-breaking temperatures in cities like Delhi, Nagpur, and Phalodi in 2024, leading to agricultural yield loss, water scarcity, and energy strain. 

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), emphasized the gravity of crossing the 1.5°C milestone stating that this should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29. 

As COP29 approaches, 2024’s unprecedented warmth underscores the urgency for stronger climate commitments. The consistent rise in global temperatures, paired with alarming sea surface and land temperature anomalies, calls for a unified, accelerated response to curb greenhouse gas emissions, phase out fossil fuels, and protect vulnerable regions and ecosystems.

Feature image: Annual global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850–1900 from 1940 to 2024. The estimate for 2024 is provisional and based on data from January to October. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service /ECMWF. 

For more such stories check out Climate Risks Daily