Food Insecurity

Climate change and Arctic warming are intensifying global food insecurity, threatening agriculture, livelihoods, and nutrition worldwide.

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Climate Change Impacts

Arctic Change Impacts

Food Insecurity in Nepal

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Food insecurity and Climate Change

This map is a representation of country-level food insecurity around the world based on exposure to climate-related risks in the period 1981-2010, the sensitivity of food systems to such risks, and each country’s adaptive capacity. HERE, you can explore how these factors are expected to change under different future climate change scenarios.

“The probability of simultaneous heat extremes in these regions increases by a factor of up to 20 for the most severe heat events when the number of north-south waves around the northern hemisphere is between 5 and 7 (see images below showing waves and areas of extreme heat). Two or more weeks per summer spent in the wave-5 or wave-7 regime are associated with 4% reductions in crop production when averaged across the affected regions, with regional decreases of up to 11%.”

Extreme heat waves linked to tropospheric jet stream disruptions are also cause for concern. Heat can be devastating to crop production on a local scale, but on a global scale, deviations to the jet stream increase the chance that heat waves hit multiple grain-producing regions at once, jeopardising global food supply. This is one example that further highlights the need for better prediction and early warning systems, local and regional disaster risk reduction efforts, sustainable and regenerative agricultural practices, and effective water resources management to ensure food and water security.

How changes in the Arctic impact food security

Arctic change has been linked to droughts, floods, land degradation, sea level rise, storms, and other extreme weather events that pose a direct threat to global food supplies.

Arctic warming disrupts the jet stream, and research reveals that changes to the jet stream heighten the risk of simultaneous crop failures in multiple grain-producing parts of the world (Kornhuber et al., 2020). Grain production is already highly concentrated: only five regions account for about 60% of global grain production, meaning climate hazards could damage already-low resilience. The war in Ukraine is one example of how disruptions to one of the world’s breadbaskets can have global impacts. This brought shortages and increased prices to consumers worldwide, exposing the fragility of our food systems. Arctic warming adds yet another layer on top of existing threats to food security.

In the Arctic itself, changes to the ocean eco-systems reduces the availability of traditional food sources relied upon by Arctic communities – leading to rises in chronic disease including hypertension, malnutrition and cardiovascular disease. Sea ice and permafrost loss can destabalise pipelines, roads and other infrastructure – leading to disruption of food supplies and storage. (Naik et al., 2025)

Food insecurity poses significant humanitarian costs and massive challenges for sustainable development across the globe.

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Global Trade Links Amplify Climate Risks

The interconnected nature of global food trade means that climate shocks in major exporting countries can quickly lead to global price increases and supply shortages. For example, India, which supplies over 40% of global rice exports, restricted rice exports in 2023–2024 mainly to stabilize domestic prices and ensure food availability, after erratic monsoon rainfall and production concerns raised fears of tighter domestic supply and inflationary pressure. This contributed to a sharp rise in global rice prices, which reached near 15-year highs before easing in 2025, impacting import-dependent countries such as Nepal, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and several West African countries including Nigeria and Senegal, which faced higher import costs and tightened supply.

These trade disruptions are reflected in global price indicators such as the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), which tracks international food prices using a baseline of 100 (2014–2016 average). In 2026, the index has remained elevated at around 130–131 points in recent months, meaning global food prices are roughly 30 percent above the long-term baseline, reflecting continued pressure in global food systems driven by climate variability, input costs, and trade disruptions.

This sustained elevation reflects wider disruptions across Africa and Europe, where climate shocks, reduced harvests, and trade constraints have tightened supply and increased import dependence. Although below earlier peaks, recurring fluctuations in cereals and vegetable oils highlight how localized production shocks and export restrictions continue to transmit through global trade networks, affecting food affordability in import-dependent countries across Africa, Europe, and Asia.

Nepal's Rising Food Insecurity

In Nepal, erratic weather patterns driven by climate change are increasingly disrupting agricultural production and driving up dependence on imported food staples. Between 2022 and 2025, unpredictable rainfall, droughts and floods have reduced domestic crop yields, forcing Nepal to supplement its national food supply with large scale imports, about 185,198 tonnes of grains costing over ₹10 billion in a recent period alone, as staple food production struggles to keep pace with demand.

These changes are linked to warming that also accelerates glacier melt in the Himalayas, a region known as the “Third Pole” with the largest ice outside the Arctic and Antarctic. Retreating glaciers reduce the long-term reliability of meltwater for irrigation and contribute to more variable monsoon rains.

This shows how changes from the poles to high mountains can ripple through food systems and heighten vulnerability to food insecurity.

Food Insecurity Across Africa

Across Africa, climate-driven droughts, floods and heatwaves are increasingly undermining agricultural production and food security. In 2024, nearly 60% of Africa's population experienced moderate or severe food insecurity, while more than 300 million people were undernourished, highlighting the continent's growing vulnerability to climate shocks.

At the same time, Sub-Saharan Africa's food import bill is projected to reach US$65 billion in 2025, reflecting growing dependence on imported cereals and exposure to global market disruptions.

Climate-related droughts in countries such as Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi have reduced maize harvests and exportable surpluses, increasing import demand and contributing to regional food price volatility across Southern Africa.

Food Supply Vulnerabilities in Europe

Europe faces increasing food supply pressure from climate variability and global trade dependence. In 2024–2025, EU cereal production was around 7 percent below the five year average, mainly due to drought and erratic rainfall affecting wheat and maize yields in countries including France, Germany, Hungary and Spain.

At the same time, extreme weather is now estimated to cost EU agriculture about €28 billion annually, equal to roughly 6 percent of total crop and livestock output, highlighting rising structural vulnerability (European Commission, 2025).

These pressures have also affected trade flows, as reduced domestic harvests in some EU regions limit export capacity to import-dependent markets in North Africa and the Middle East, while increased dependence on imported fertilizers and feed inputs continues to amplify production costs and food price volatility across Europe.