Our Global Water Cycle Is Out of Balance

Global River Discharge Anomaly. Content Providers(s): State of Water, 2025, WMO

The world’s water cycle is becoming more erratic, with communities increasingly facing both water shortages and destructive floods. According to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) State of Global Water Resources report, 2025 was one of the driest years for global river discharge in 35 years, with below normal flows across 36% of the world’s river basin area. Rivers in 2025 were so dry that they could no longer compare current conditions to the stable, predictable water cycles that human civilization has relied on for millennia.

For the seventh consecutive year, only 34 to 38% of river basins had normal flows, compared with an average of 46% between 1991 and 2020. 

The changes extend beyond rivers. Water stored in groundwater, soil, lakes, snow and ice are also under pressure, reducing the natural reserves that help communities through dry periods. Contrastingly, intense rainfall and flooding continue to affect many regions. This growing imbalance can put water supplies, food production, health and livelihoods at risk. In short: Our water systems are befuddled. 

What Is Happening

• Freshwater storage is declining: Global water stored on land has been decreasing since around 2014 to 2016, including groundwater, lakes, rivers, soil moisture, vegetation, snow and ice, reducing the natural buffer available during droughts. 

• Groundwater is under pressure: Scientists establish a baseline for wells by looking at decades of data (often 30+ years.), this is what’s called a wells’ historical range. Nearly two thirds of monitored wells were outside their historical range in 2025 (showing significantly lower, or in rare cases higher than what is typical for that time of year), with conditions shifting further towards water deficits. 
• Glaciers are rapidly losing ice: Every major glaciated region recorded ice loss for the fourth consecutive year. Glaciers lost 408 gigatonnes of water in 2025, and cumulative losses reached 1,400 gigatonnes between 2023 and 2025 (roughly 560 million Olympic sized swimming pools). 
• Droughts and floods are recurring systematically: : National hydrological services reported record breaking floods and droughts in each of the past five years. Some communities have had little time to recover before the next event. 
• Asia and Africa face (the most) severe impacts: Combined, the two continents accounted for at least half of recorded water related extreme events and more than 80% of associated deaths over the past five years. 
• Water conditions vary sharply between regions: In 2025, major deficits affected parts of North America, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, while some parts of Africa and Asia experienced much higher than normal river flows. 
• Water monitoring remains uneven: Many regions, in Africa and Asia, lack sufficient data and monitoring systems to track water availability and extremes, making it harder to prepare for floods, droughts and changing water resources. 

Why This is Getting Worse 

Rainfall, evaporation, snow and ice melt are all affected by a warmer climate. This makes water availability less predictable. For every 1°C of warming, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more water vapour, increasing the potential for heavier rainfall and flooding, while higher temperatures also increase evaporation and soil drying, raising drought risk. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finds that climate change is already intensifying heavy precipitation (any liquid that falls from clouds i.e. rain, snow, etc.) in many regions. 

The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the global average, changing the temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes. This can influence the jet stream, the high-altitude winds that steer weather systems, and contribute to more persistent weather patterns, including prolonged dry or wet conditions in some regions. 

Global Water Imbalance: What This Means for People 

• Water security: Falling river and groundwater levels can reduce water available for homes, cities and industries. Think the water you shower yourself with, or the ice we need to store food. 
• Food security: Drought can reduce crop and livestock production, while floods can destroy fields and food supplies, impacting nutrition and access to affordable and healthy diets. 
• Health: Water shortages can make hygiene and sanitation more difficult, while floods can contaminate drinking water and increase disease risks. 
• Energy: Changes in river flows and reservoir levels can affect hydropower and cooling water for power plants. 
• Livelihoods: Farmers, fishers and other water-dependent workers face greater uncertainty. 
• Economic losses: Floods and droughts can damage homes, infrastructure and businesses and disrupt local economies. 

The Urgent Response Needed

What needs to change:

• Improve water monitoring: Track rivers, groundwater, soil moisture, snow and glaciers. 
• Prepare for both extremes: Communally plan for droughts and floods. 
• Protect water reserves: Reduce groundwater overuse and protect wetlands, forests and natural water storage areas. 
• Use better forecasts: Combine weather, climate and water data to prepare communities earlier. 
• Strengthen water systems: Improve drainage, reservoirs, irrigation and urban water infrastructure. 
• Share water data: Countries sharing river basins need common monitoring and early warning systems. 

What YOU Can Do:

• Save water: Use water efficient appliances, fix leaks & be mindful of personal water waste. 
• Protect local water sources: Support conservation of wetlands, rivers, lakes and green spaces. 
• Collect rainwater: Where appropriate, use rainwater for gardens, cleaning and other suitable purposes. 

Read more: Extreme weather events | Health risks | Climate Risks Daily 

Original source: WMO: Recent water trends have serious future implications