Antarctica’s Missing Sea Ice

Thwaites Glacier, Source: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2014-148 (JPL)

An area of Antarctic winter sea ice roughly the size of France – around 650,000 km² – failed to form between June and July 2026. Thus, Antarctica is currently missing sea ice along the Bellingshausen Sea, off the coast of West Antarctica, as shown by satellite observations. The seasonal formation of Antarctic sea ice has been a natural feature of Earth’s climate for thousands of years. Normally, sea ice expands through winter and reaches its maximum extent in September. However, unusually warm ocean water & extreme heat across the Antarctic Peninsula seems to have caused the non-formation of the sea ice. This raise concerns that the Antarctic climate system may be entering a period of increased instability.

While floating sea ice loss does not directly raise global sea levels, scientists warn that it removes an important protective layer around Antarctic ice shelves. Reduced sea ice allows stronger waves and warmer ocean waters to interact with ice shelves. This can accelerate glacier retreat and the loss of land-based Antarctic ice, which directly contributes to sea level rise.

What is Happening?

• Around 650,000 km² of winter sea ice (roughly equivalent to the size of France) was missing from the Bellingshausen Sea during the Antarctic winter.
• The region was almost completely ice-free at a time when sea ice would normally be expanding rapidly before reaching its seasonal peak in September.
• The event is linked to a combination of unusually warm ocean conditions, shifting winds and atmospheric circulation patterns. Together, these prevented sea ice from forming.
• The Antarctic Peninsula experienced an extreme winter heat event, with temperatures reaching 15.4°C at Argentina’s Esperanza research station, which is more than 20°C above average for that period.
• This was the third major sea ice shortfall in four years in the region, raising concerns about a longer-term shift in Antarctic sea ice behaviour.

Why this keeps getting worse: Climate Change and Polar Change

Antarctica plays a critical role in regulating Earth’s climate by influencing ocean circulation, weather patterns, and sea level. Carbon pollution is overheating the planet. It is warming the atmosphere and oceans, and driving changes in Antarctic sea ice, ocean temperatures and wind patterns. Recent research shows that Antarctica is experiencing rapid and interconnected changes, with scientists finding strong evidence that the Antarctic environment may be moving towards a new state with much lower sea ice levels. Antarctic sea ice reached record lows in 2017, 2022 and 2023. Researchers found that the recent decline is far beyond what would be expected from natural variability alone. A recent study also found that Antarctic summer sea ice has declined 1.9 times faster over 10 years than Arctic summer sea ice declined over 46 years, highlighting the speed of recent changes.

Scientists are also concerned that changes in Antarctic sea ice could affect ocean circulation, marine life, and global climate patterns. While researchers are still studying how these changes will unfold, evidence suggests that reducing carbon pollution is key to limit further disruption and reduce the risk of long-lasting changes in the Antarctic system.

What does this mean for ecosystems and communities?

Antarctic ecosystems

• Reduced sea ice may disrupt habitats for species that depend on stable ice conditions, including emperor penguins, Adélie penguins and crabeater seals.
• Changes in sea ice extent can affect breeding success, migration routes and food availability across Antarctic marine ecosystems.
• Previous years of exceptionally low sea ice have been associated with widespread breeding failures in some emperor penguin colonies.

Global impacts

• Continued ice loss from Antarctica could contribute to long-term global sea level rise, increasing risks for coastal communities.
• Low-lying islands, coastal cities and delta regions (such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mekong and Nile deltas) may face greater exposure to coastal flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion.
• Changes in Antarctic sea ice and ocean conditions may influence Southern Ocean circulation and broader climate patterns, although the magnitude and timing of these effects remain areas of active research.

Urgent response needed

What you can do:

• Stay informed using reliable scientific information about changes occurring in the polar regions.
• Support evidence-based climate policies and adaptation measures within your community (for example, supporting heat action plans, improved public transport, and nature-based solutions such as urban tree planting).
• Reduce carbon pollution where possible through energy-efficient choices and sustainable transport.
• Share accurate information to raise awareness of the links between polar change and global climate risks.
• Support organisations and initiatives working to improve climate science, conservation and community resilience.

What needs to change:

• Reduce carbon pollution to limit future warming and help slow changes in the Antarctic climate system.
• Strengthen international cooperation to improve climate adaptation efforts.
• Expand long-term monitoring of Antarctic sea ice, ocean temperatures and ice sheet dynamics using satellite observations and field measurements.
• Improve understanding of Antarctic tipping points and their potential impacts on global climate and sea level.
• Incorporate updated sea level rise projections into coastal planning, infrastructure design and disaster risk management.
• Support research and conservation efforts that improve the resilience of polar ecosystems.

Read more: Extreme weather events | Health risks | Climate Risks Daily

Original source: https://thebulletin.org/2026/06/an-area-of-sea-ice-as-big-as-france-is-gone-from-antarcticas-west-coast-as-temperatures-rise/