A Very Strong El Niño Is Raising Risks for Asia’s Garment Supply Chains

Asia is the engine of the global garment industry. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the region is the world’s top producer, generating 70.6% of global textile and clothing exports in 2022. Alongside this massive export dominance, more than 73 million people across Asia and the Pacific work in textiles, apparel, leather and related manufacturing, around 75% of global garment employment, cementing the region as the centre of gravity for global apparel supply chains. 

Much of this production is concentrated in low-lying deltas, floodplains and rapidly growing cities. Factories, workers’ homes, roads, and power systems are already exposed to long-term risks from rising heat, heavy rainfall, and flooding. 

Why Asia’s Garment Industry Matters

Garment supply chains connect cut-and-sew factories to fabric mills, dye houses, spinning facilities, warehouses, and ports. A disruption at any stage can delay production even when the final assembly factory remains open. 

Research from Cornell University’s Global Labor Institute and Schroders compared climate-adaptive and high-heat-and-flooding scenarios for Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Vietnam, which together account for 18% of global apparel exports. By 2030, export earnings under the high-risk scenario were projected to be $65.9 billion lower than under the adaptive pathway. By 2050, earnings were 68.8% lower and employment 34.5% lower than in the adaptive scenario. 

Why the 2026-27 El Niño Changes the Picture

This local variation is illustrated by a WaterAid analysis with researchers from the universities of Bristol and Cardiff. Across 44 years of rainfall data, stronger El Niños historically pushed different Asian cities in different directions. 

The rainfall relationships are based on historical observations, not precise local forecasts. The possible business concerns are inferences from those findings. 

Other climate influences can reinforce or weaken El Niño’s effects, so businesses should not treat this table as a forecast for a whole country. Mumbai’s historical relationship cannot automatically be applied to Surat, Tiruppur, or Chennai. The analysis did not include Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City. Nor does possible short-term drying in Phnom Penh remove the city’s substantial long-term flood exposure. 

This is the challenge businesses must manage: chronic climate hazards remain, while seasonal conditions can shift the immediate direction and timing of risk. 

Bangladesh: Planning for Either Extreme

The Cornell analysis found that Bangladesh could have around $26.8 billion less in export earnings and 250,000 fewer jobs in 2030 under its high-risk scenario than under its climate-adaptive pathway. These are differences between projected futures, not losses from today’s industry. 

India and Pakistan: Different Cities, Different Signals

India’s textile industry is spread across specialised production clusters. Historical patterns suggest stronger El Niños are associated with drier conditions in Mumbai, but that finding cannot be transferred automatically to other centres. Each location has its own climate, infrastructure and water system. and water system. 

Surat illustrates long-term flood exposure. After the city’s 2006 flood, an IIED study of 145 small and medium-sized textile businesses found that every business surveyed was affected and recovery took an average of 49 days. Flooded roads can also stop materials moving between production stages, disrupting factories that remain dry. 

In Pakistan, historical relationships suggest Karachi and Faisalabad could become wetter or drier during a strong El Niño. This uncertainty makes frequently updated information from national meteorological services, river authorities and water operators particularly important. 

Vietnam: Flood, Heat, and Energy Risks

In 2023, drought and low reservoir levels contributed to hydropower shortages and factory outages in northern industrial areas, and in May 2026, the government warned that heat and El Niño conditions could further strain the power grid and reduce hydropower availability. 

For businesses in the sector, climate resilience involves preparing for both extremes: protecting operations from flooding while securing reliable water and energy supplies during periods of drought and heat. 

Cambodia: Short-Term Drying, Long-Term Flood Risk

Cambodia’s textile industry provides income for around 800,000 workers and almost 70% of export earnings. During floods in October 2020, around 16,000 workers were unable to reach factories in Phnom Penh, Kandal, and Takeo. 

Yet historical patterns suggest that Phnom Penh tends to become drier during stronger El Niños. In the short term, businesses may therefore need to watch water availability, worker sanitation, process-water supplies, and hydropower reliability. That does not cancel the long-term need to prepare buildings, transport routes, and workers for flooding. Cambodia shows why seasonal forecasts and long-term risk maps must be used together. 

What Can Garment Businesses Do?

Brands, manufacturers, governments, and financiers all have a role in reducing disruption from both too much and too little water. 

Use Forecasts Alongside Long-Term Risk Maps

Location	Service	Relevant products
Bangladesh	Bangladesh Meteorological Department	One-month and three-month climate outlooks
India	India Meteorological Department	Monsoon, rainfall, heat, ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole outlooks
Pakistan	Pakistan Meteorological Department (+ PMD instagram)	Monthly and seasonal forecasts
Vietnam	National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting	Monthly and seasonal climate and hydrological outlooks
Cambodia	Department of Meteorology/MOWRAM	Seasonal outlooks; public access is less consistent
Indonesia	BMKG	Seasonal rainfall and dry/wet-season forecasts
Sri Lanka	Department of Meteorology	Seasonal forecasts, drought information and El Niño updates
Southeast Asia	ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre	Regional monthly and three-month outlooks
Lower Mekong	Mekong River Commission	River levels, flood warnings and drought forecasts

Acting Early on a Changing Risk

The 2026–27 El Niño provides an immediate test of whether garment supply chains are prepared for a more volatile climate. Some production hubs may face heavier rainfall and flooding, while others struggle with drought, unreliable water supplies or energy disruption. The direction of risk may differ by city, but the business lesson is consistent: preparation must reach individual factories, workers, infrastructure and lower-tier suppliers. 

Forecasts provide businesses with a window to act. By investing in water security, worker protection, resilient facilities and flexible logistics now, brands and manufacturers can reduce disruption during the coming seasons while building resilience to the longer-term effects of climate change.