World Meteorological Organization – global temperatures will continue to break records in the next 5 years

The latest climate forecast from the World Meteorological Organization paints a stark picture of the near future, warning of escalating climate risks driven by rising global temperatures. 

The report highlights a 70% chance that average temperatures over the next 5 years will breach the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, and an 86% probability that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will exceed this threshold. This benchmark, set out in the Paris Climate Agreement, is designed to limit the most severe climate impacts. 

In line with this trend, there is an 80% chance that at least one year in the next five will beat 2024 as the hottest year on record. 

While the report emphasizes that long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C, the increasing frequency of temporary breaches signals accelerating climate change. The analysis also identifies a 1% probability of a single year reaching 2°C of warming, a scenario that would require extreme conditions but represents a threshold scientist previously considered unlikely before 2030. 

The Arctic faces disproportionate warming, with winter temperatures predicted to rise 2.4°C above recent averages, more than three times the global average anomaly. This polar warming will drive continued sea ice loss which reduces the Earth’s natural reflectivity, accelerating warming, and triggering cascading global effects. These include rising sea levels, shifts in ocean currents, and changes in weather patterns far beyond the poles, impacting food security, water access, and human health worldwide. 

This report underscores the urgent need to phase out fossil fuels. “We must take climate action,” WMO’s Chris Hewitt told The Guardian, “1.5°C is not inevitable”. 

Climate action today can still shape a livable tomorrow. 

Feature image: The climate forecast for May to September between 2025 and 2029 shows projected changes compared to the 1991–2020 average. Credit: WMO. 

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