Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia (drought and food insecurity September 2023)

As of 2023, countries in the greater Horn of Africa suffered from five consecutive below-average rainy seasons, which aid groups have labelled  ‘the worst drought in 40 years’. The prolonged drought decimated livestock populations and damaged crops, leading to continuously increasing food prices, especially in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. According to the IPC, the drought left 23.4 million people acutely food insecure and 5.1 million children profoundly malnourished. Even though recent rainfall has eased the effect of drought on crops, many households have lost all their livestock, and agropastoral livelihoods are likely to need at least five years to recover.  

The drought has resulted in the displacement of 2.7 million people, with the most significant numbers of displaced people recorded in Somalia at 1.7M, followed by Ethiopia (516,000) and Kenya (466,000). A study conducted by a team of international climate scientists with the World Weather Attribution (WWA) states that climate change has made extreme weather events, like the droughts in the greater Horn of Africa, much stronger and 100 times more likely. 

Large-scale atmospheric interactions can transmit changes from the Arctic to distant regions. Arctic warming contributes to global climate change, and its effects can reach faraway regions – such as the African continent. However, the climate of this region is peculiar: climate models have predicted that in response to a rising average temperature, parts of eastern Africa will get more precipitation. Yet, the Horn of Africa has been experiencing less– a phenomenon called the ‘eastern African climate paradox.’ Recent studies, such as Baxter et al. (2023), predict this anomaly will continue and that under continued anthropogenic warming, the Horn of Africa is likely to experience further drying. 

Read our blog: SDGs On Thin Ice: Arctic Warming and Climate Crisis in Ethiopia