India faces monsoon in July and glacial flooding in October 2023

India, home to 1.4 billion people, is a country with diverse geography including the Thar desert in the west, the tropical south, the Indo-Gangetic plain, and the Himalayas. This provides for a range of different climatic zones, and therefore, potential climate risks, within the country. One of the most pronounced climate phenomena in India is the monsoon, which starts each year around June and tends to peak in August.  

Monsoon rains have important societal impacts. Drier years have negative implications for agriculture and water security, while wetter years can result in massive flooding. India typically receives 70-90% of its annual precipitation from the monsoon. However, the monsoon is becoming increasingly unreliable and difficult to predict due to climate change. This is especially the case during El Niño phases, during which the Eastern Pacific is warmer than average, and trade winds that draw moist air over the Indian subcontinent are weaker than usual. A strong El Niño phase is developing in summer 2023, and India has already been hit hard by heavy rains and flooding, with waterlogging and flooding issues reported across 94% of cities in the country.  

The ongoing monsoon mayhem has resulted in flash floods, cloudbursts and landslides. As of 19 July, these events have caused losses of over US$500 million and tragically claimed over 150 lives across India. 125 deaths have been reported by Himachal Pradesh alone.  Northeastern Assam and Sikkim states have also suffered mudslides, as 14,000 people in Assam have been forced into relief camps, with a further 4,000 affected. 

Glacial lake flooding started on 4 October in mountainous Sikkim and left a death toll of at least 74. One hundred people were reported missing and the flooding impacted around 22,000 people.   

Climate change is a major driver of increasing monsoon uncertainty and glacial melting in the Indian Himalayas, which form part of a region referred to as the world’s Third Pole because it contains so much glacial ice, surpassed in scale only by the polar regions. The Third Pole holds significant importance in regulating the Earth’s climate system.

The Arctic’s impact on climate change in the Himalayas is mainly channeled through the cryosphere, which encompasses ice and snow-covered areas including glaciers and polar ice caps. The melting of Arctic ice has the potential to modify atmospheric circulation patterns, therefore, it can drive glacial melting in India’s Himalayas.   

Climate change is a major driver of increasing monsoon uncertainty. This is because the monsoon forms based on heat differentials between the South Asian landmass and the surrounding oceans. The atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically contributed to a consistent monsoon are now being disrupted by rapid global warming. One reason for this disruption is that not all regions of the globe are warming at the same rate: the Arctic is warming at a rate four times faster than the global average. Due in part to rapidly declining Arctic sea ice cover, the Arctic is experiencing a positive feedback loop by which less sunlight is reflected by ice and warming therefore accelerates. This amplified warming can alter the jet stream at mid latitudes, with potential downstream impacts on the Indian monsoon. 

The monsoon season in India has brought contrasting weather patterns across different regions. While northern and northwestern states like Haryana, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh have experienced excessive rainfall, southern and eastern regions such as Jharkhand, Bihar and Telangana have faced unusually dry conditions, receiving significantly less rainfall than normal. The uneven distribution of rainfall is having a significant impact on crops such as rice, vegetables, and pulses. While floods have damaged standing crops in northern India, delayed planting in the south has also affected agricultural productivity. Consequently, the prices of certain vegetables, including tomatoes, have reached record highs. 

Changes in the climate patterns that contribute to the monsoon make it difficult to forecast rains and adequately prepare for wetter or drier conditions. It indicates the urgency in developing adequate adaptation measures in India, as well as reducing global emissions to mitigate climate change.   

Read our blog: SDGs On Thin Ice: Arctic Warming and Climate Crisis in India

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